Drip, Drip, Drip Into War

Just yesterday it was reported that the Iranians had used one of their jets to “buzz” one of our aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf.  It reportedly came within 100 yards of the ship.  That is almost landing on the darn thing.   Apparently, and hopefully, we had it on our radar tracking system for a long time before it approached that close.  It has been the accepted custom on the high seas for a long time that any encounter between forces that come that close are considered a hostile act.  More often than not such a close pass by would result in opening fire on the intruder.   This is a stark reminder to the most lazy mind that we are dealing with a very dangerous and volatile situation in the Mid East.

We used to send our SAC bombers to the Soviet border regularly to test their systems and they did the same.  These events normally occurred in the Artic Ocean or the  Bering Sea area.  Such events have happened often but always with danger.  Usually the intruding party would pull back before they got too close to a border or ship to avoid a hostile reaction.  Many times such intrusions were for gathering intelligence on a broader scale.  You may recall the famous incident with Gary Francis Powers and the U-2 spy plane in 1960.  Our intellignece folks had assured the military that the Soviets didn’t have any rockets capable of reaching the spy plance because it could fly at altitudes of over 75,000 feet.  Another example of intelligence gone wrong.  They did have one and it shot him down and resulted in great embarrassment to the US and loss of prestige on the world stage.

Militaries often position their forces in locations to demonstrate to a potential enemy that they are there and ready to engage if necessary.  Usually it is ships off a coast or conducting “training exercises” of someone’s coast.  Just as the Iranians are doing now in the Gulf.   As Iran continues its development of a nuclear bomb we should all watch with horror as they flex their muscles and beat their chest.  The likelihood of nuclear confrontation with Israel is a danger of the first magnitude.  Israel has never officially acknowledged that they have a nuclear weapon(s) but everyone certainly assumes that they do.  Several decades ago when Israel was very close diplomatically with South Africa during the apartheid regime there were report of a nuclear explosion in South Africa but it was never made clear if this was an Israelis or South African device.  The nuclear device is the Israeli version of the castle keep.  Where they retreat in the last instance to preserve their existence.  It is very foolish to assume they won’t use such a device the moment they feel that their existence as a nation is on the brink.  Likewise, the Iranians have made clear their intention to bring Isarel low, very low.  It is a holy crusade for them and they don’t mind the loss of lives, even of their own citizens, 

Israel has no doubt war gamed the various scenarios under which they might launch a preemptive strike to neutralize the Iranian progress with a bomb.  Many have written about the difficulties they will face trying to make such an attack without incurring the wrath of the US or other neighboring countries by using their air space for the attack.  Yes, that will be of some concern but in the grand scheme of things it will be minor.  If you are launching an attack on Iran the dipolmatic fallout will be insignificant compared to the real dangers on the ground.  The Israelis will have to make more than one strike most likely.  Supposedly the Iranians have dispersed they facilities around the country which would be logical and prudent to avoid having everything wiped out in one attack.  It makes it harder for the attacking force.  I would think the Isarelis will ultimately take the route they deem most effective militarily and to maximize the results of the attack and diplomacy be damned.   They will be in a fight for their lives at that point. 

Geography and history tell you exactly where the Iranians will attack.  It will be Tel Aviv and mayby one or two other coastal areas. Jerusalem has too many Arabs and Muslim holy places to attack there.  Almost anyplace else would harm more Arabs than Jews.  They might go for the Golan Heights also because of its strategic location.   To prevent this the Israelis when they feel painted into a corner will strike first as they have in the past in ’73 and in Lebanon in the ’80’s.  The Iranians will make an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz to the flow of oil but shouldn’t be successful with that in the long run.   They simply don’t have the military capability.  It would not be like the Battle of the Atlantic during WWII when we faced a real danger the German U-boats could cut off the logistical lifeline to England.  That is if “we” strike back hard at them.  The we would likely be the US and Israel and some of the western allies whether they like it or not.  It will be very messy and will roil the international markets for some time.  But the Israelis can force our hand and what else can we do?  Complete surrender is out of the question politically at home.   What President could watch Israel be destroyed and survive?   We will have to take out all the military of Iran that can threaten either Israel or the Persian Gulf area.  That means at a minimum their air force and all navy forces.  Whether we are enthusiastic or not we will have to strike a follow-up blow decisively and forcefully and quickly or else a tragedy will become an Armageddon.

Take a look at the numbers and you will see that the debt crisis of the US will be the same as Greece before this decade is out.  Don’t believe me, check it for yourself, it is a mathematical fact.  They have a welfare and socialist state that provides well for everyone but the problem is there aren’t enough workers in the “real” economy there to support it, thus the debt.  Our government grows by the year, oh dear me.   www.olcranky.wordpress.com

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Filed under Economics, Foreign Affairs, geography, history, military history, Politics, War

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