Wrist Slap Or Knockout Punch For Iran?

The word is out now about the second nuclear enhancement facility in Iran.  No doubt our intelligence folks have known about it for some time as have our allies.  For diplomatic and I sure hope strategic reasons it was kept under wraps until now.  We can only assume that the Bush and now the current administration was hoping that diplomacy and sanctions would be forceful enough to make Iran give in and abandon those nuclear hopes.  That was always a false hope.  An analysis of Iran for the past 30 years clearly indicates the course they have chosen and there has been no significant blip on their radar screen.

Iran wishes for a Islamist Caliphate dominating the Middle East and they want the center of that universe to be in Teheran.   They are not Al-Queada nor the Taliban but their ambitions and goals are so similar as to make no difference.  They are willing to risk war and certainly are willing to foment revolution and insurgency in the region to further their aims.  This is obvious from reading the headlines and news for the last 30 years.   They openly announce their aims and their wishes.  They know that if they could be the ones to eliminate Israel that they would be the heroes of the Islamist world.  Sadly, the vast majority of  Mulsims would rejoice in such a triumph.  You do remember the celebrations you saw around the Muslim world when 9/11 occurred.   They felt no sorrow for the dead Americans and other foreign innocents killed that day.  They weren’t even neutral but raptuous with joy.  The minarets would call all to prayer if Israel were brought to destruction by Iran.  It might seem a foolish and foolhardy risk to a rational mind but rational minds apparently are in short supply in Iran.

We either have to accept that Iran will have nuclear capability soon and will strike at Isreal at a future date or someone has to step up now and strike first at them to eliminate that threat.   Iran doesn’t need nuclear arms to protect itself.  Neither the US nor any of its near neighbors will be invading Iran.   None of us has the capacity or the will to embark on such a course of action.  They are intelligent if not rational and they know that.  The Iranian borders are secure.  It is not defending their geographic integrity that is important to them but hegemony and a place in the pantheon of Islamic saints that lures them.

Those rockets they are developing can wreak havoc even if they didn’t use nuclear weapons.  Look at a map again and check on the Straits of Hormuz.   Even short range missiles with conventional warheads could block that Strait at least temporarily.  They could straggle commerce for the world.  Actually the US would endure much better than most because we have all the natural gas and coal we need for power but other areas would be on the verge of darkness.  We would retaliate of course but there wouldn’t be an invasion even if that was the smartest and best strategic move.  The administration would not do it, period.  It would only take a couple of nukes to effectively destroy Israel.  They wouldn’t bomb Jerusalem for religious and political reasons but Tel Aviv and Haifa could be targeted and if hit with nukes that would bring the end to Israel.  Their compatriots in Syria and the Palestinians could finish the job along with “volunteers” from the Muslim world.  There would be no lack of such volunteers from that quarter.  Those guys who want to be martyrs would drool at the thought of being in on the kill of Israel.   The reality is that once launched those nukes would likely hit their target.  Intercepting them would be dicey at best and most likely not succeed.  The technology simply is not that sophisticated yet and that which is, is not in place to do the job and our military doesn’t train enough in that mission because it is seen as provocative by the world.  You do remember the outcry the last time we made such a test? 

The Israelis will probably make a strike.  The current administration does not want them to do that.  Is it possible that US military will make an effort to shoot down the Israli jets before they reach their target?  It is not a far fetched idea.  Look at a map.  Israel would not fly over Iraq and the southern route would be too long.   They likely would go up north over Turkey then back south and east to their targets.  The flight would take a while and there would be time to scamble our jets in Iraq to intercept them.    I think the current administration when push comes to shove would be more worried about the negative reactions in the Muslim world to an attack on Iran than they would to the negative reaction in Israel to intercepting their jets.  Of course we might not be able to get them all and some would get through anyway which would really be the worst of all possibilities.  We then would have angered the Israelis beyond reconciliation and if any Iranian nuclear facilities were hit at all the entire Muslim world would hate us even more than they already do if that is possible.

We could take out those facilities ourselves with resolve.  If that happened we should also hit other strategic facilities so that Iran would be neutered for a generation.  We could at the same time take out important targets like power plants, transmission lines, water supplies, all airports capable of military operations and harbors, and command and control bases of the Iranian military.  Yes, we would have terrorists attacks back against us but those are going to happen anyway when the Israelis attack.  With diplomacy and strategic use of aid there would at least be the hope for a change in regimes in Iran during the interregnum for the better.  There is not assurance of that but we can be assured of terrorist attacks and a bad ending if we stand by and allow Iran to stay its  present course.  Bravery requires hard choices on occasion.  We are still home of the brave aren’t we?

“Love is being a friend”  Proverbs  www.olcranky.wordpress.com

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