Energy and Envoirnmental Change the Asian Way

It has been announced that new standards for American cars will be issued to require a dramatic leap in the MPG average for the US made fleet of cars.  The purpose and plan is that this will reduce dependence on foreign oil and improve our envoirnment and reduce the alleged threat of Global Warming.  The proposal estimates that this new requirement will cost about $1300 per car.  Well, if you believe that estimate I have some sub prime ocean front property I would like to sell you in Florida.  For starters we can predict with certainty that the cost for these changes will be at least twice the estimate.  Tell me the last time you saw a Government, Inc. cost estimate that was accurate.   So right off the bat the next time you go to buy a new car the cost will be dramatically higher and what are you getting for that higher cost?  If I am right and the actual cost is closer to $2500 per car then that amount of money would buy a awful lot of gas for a long time.   Don’t forget the cumulative cost for these new cars as the years go buy.  The tail pipe standards will be higher.  The future testing will be more stringent and more costly along with the future repair and maintenance cost for those systems.  How much more will that add to the cost of your new car down the road?

Next what makes anyone with a brain think that the cost of gasoline will remain as low as it is now.  Supply and demand will catch up if the economy improves and we are assured that it will.  I mean the new guy is guaranteeing at least 4 million new jobs and whole new eco-friendly industries.  In addition to that factor we have to deal with the reality that foreign events will influence the price of oil.  It always has and will for our lifetimes.  Have you been reading about the rebels, insurgents, thugs or whatever they are in Nigeria lately?   That is not a dependable source of oil.  Likewise we face a looming problem with Iran.  However their nuclear ambitions play out they will be a troublemaker for the foreseeable future and that will impact the price of oil.  Threats and trouble in the Mid East will cause concern about the reliability of oil supplies.  We are still not allowing complete development of our domestic resources for oil supplies which would be a much better and more secure way of reducing foreign dependence.  Lastly you are encouraged to do some math about the reduction in emissions if all this change with the cars is implemented.  The reduction will be miniscule if at all due to population growth and the fact that CO2 emissions from cars if less than 5% of the total CO2 in the atmosphere.

Boone Pickens is trying for a much better idea by utilizing natural gas for our cars.  That technology is available and relative inexpensive.  We have scads of natural gas and that would definitely reduce our foreign oil dependence.  Clearly logic and sensible approaches are not part of the agenda for the new guy.  The natural gas would reduce the emissions by approximately half.  That would be significantly better than these changes to the fleet proposed and we have the engineering and infrastructure capability to implement that quickly.  But that doesn’t seem to fit the radical envoirnmental agenda being pushed.

Your attention is called to the deal being negotiated now between China and Brazil for the new oil field off the coast of Brazil.  It is a 175 billion dollar deal with the funding coming from the Chinese in exchange for long term contracts for oil delievery.  The field is what they call an “elephant” because of its size.  It is a huge new discovery but will take lots of money to drill out and build the infrastructure.   This source will be in use for decades by the Chinese.  What does that tell you about their intentions for the future for the auto industry and their use of gasoline as the primary fuel for all their cars?  They now sell as many autos per year as we do and that number will continue to grow rapidly for several decades.  All of those cars will be operated with gasoline powered engines.  They are cheaper, proven and reliable and will allow the production of vast amounts of cars at low prices.  There will be no premium on the sales price of their cars for envoirnmental concerns or engineering.  China alone will offset any savings we have in emission reductions and add to the global total for those worried about such matters.  The new guy can preach all he wants about “leading the way” on envoirnmental matters but the fact is no one is going to follow.  I offer as exhibit A–China.  We haven’t even talked about all the coal- fired power plants they are building and intend to build out of the next several decades. They number into the hundreds.  They have no plans to capture the emissions. 

Next there is India.  They are doing the same thing as the Chinese and in spades.  They are building new power plants and manufactoring cars as fast as they can.  Their cars are all gasoline fueled.  Neither they or the Chinese will pay any $2500 extra for emissions controls.    It is not as developed as China and has even further to go to “catch up” and you can be assured those folks moving up from poverty to the middle class will want their cars and want them as cheap as the can be made.   That will mean no emissions standards.  You will never see China or India sign on to any global envoirnmental treaty for this reason.  They will not lock in requirements that will hamper their economic growth.

It if all weren’t so costly and disruptive to our economy and its future it would be laughable.  We are truly embarking on a fool’s errand.  Pelosi shouldn’t take on the CIA and we as a people shouldn’t try to take on Mother Nature.  Not polluting is one thing but trying to manage the atmosphere is something rather like trying to build the tower of Babel especially if the majority of the people in the world aren’t going along.

During WWII at least a half million tons of shipping were lost each month in ’41, ’42, and ’43.  Some months is was much more than that.  The loses decreased some toward the end of the war.  Those losses included hundreds of tankers will crude oil, aviation fuel and toxic chemicals of various types.  The cargo ships contained all manner of poisonous matter and munitions.  The oceans were a dumping ground for every concieveable nasty toxin we had.  The oceans survived and so did we.   Buy Ford. 

read more at www.olcranky.wordpress.com

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Filed under business, Economics, Environment, Foreign Affairs, Global Warming, government, Mother Nature

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