The constant concern about the nuclear program and threats from Iran and the current turmoil on the streets there keep that country in the headlines and rightly so. From all available information Iran is on track to develop its own nuclear capacity for atomic weapons in a matter of a couple of years at most. It is not only that they are developing that potential nuclear arsenal but their announced intentions about the possible use of that weapon that cause concern. Virtually every nuclear power except for Iran and North Korea is very circumspect with regard to any comment about the possible use of such a weapon. Indeed all those countries say that they have no intention to ever use such a weapon and that they exist only for defensive purposes to ensure the continued existence of their respective nations. You never read of the US, Great Britain, France or Russia or the Ukraine making any threats remotely implying the use of any nuclear devices. Even Pakistan and India when at loggerheads, which is often, don’t make threats of such a use againt each other. The Chinese never issue public statements rattling the nuclear sword against anyone. Ah, but the Iranis are in a class by themselves (well, maby North Korea shares a desk in that classroom with them). The Iranian authorities and leaders regularly threaten the existence of Israel and others they perceive to be their allies or supporters with anniliation, nuclear or otherwise. Are those threats enough to justify a pre-emptive strike against Iran by the US or Israel or any other nation?
Let’s start by looking at the map. As the real estate salesmen would say everything is location, location, location. Yes, Iran does have some oil production but it is not essential to the general welfare of the world. They have operated their oil fields so incompetently for years now that the production is far below what it could be with improved technology and procedures. Their current production of about 2 million barrels a day is significant but if it was terminated completely it would not adversely affect the world supply that greatly. Heck, it might even be a good thing and make the US look more closely at using the abundant natural gas reserves we have for vehicle fuel. Iran is important because of where it is, not what it can produce. It sits right below the Caspian Sea and stretches from there all the way to the Persian Gulf and in fact the entire eastern shore of that Gulf is Iranian territory, over 600 miles of coastline is Iranian. It straddles the land and coastal routes between the Asian lands, (India, Indonesia, etc.) and the near Mid East lands of Iraq, Israel, Turkey and Syria. An irrational and hostile Iran can foment troubles out of proportion to its size or military power or economic power because it touches so many important areas or is close enough to influence those areas. The fact that it is Shia also carries tremendous weight in the Muslim world that adheres to those doctrines. It is the largest by far of those Shia lands.
The other major problem with Iran is the fact that it is a theocracy. That is such a foreign concept to the Western world. I like James Dobson and think he is a great guy with wonderful ideas but I would not want him to be in complete charge of the US. By its very nature a theological agenda is not rational because it is based on faith and beliefs that go beyond the rational. When objective reality clashes with religious beliefs the beliefs more often prevail in such a society. Hence the suicide bombers. Do we need more evidence than that? The religious leaders of Iran and the secular leaders to the extent there is any such thing there all rattle the sword constantly and threaten war and destruction on those they believe to be infidels. I think we should take people at their word. The mistake the world made with Mussolini, Hitler and Stalin was not taking them at their word. When they get the nuclear weapons they will use them. We should accept that as a fact. They say that is what they will do and we ignore their announced intentions at our own peril.
It would the be the height of stupidity to simply sit by and watch your confirmed enemy build their weapons to destroy you. They are not developing those weapons for defense but offense. There is no rational basis that they can posit that nuclear weapons are needed to defend Iran from attack. Who the hell is hell is going to attack them?
They are on a jihad and religious mission and that doesn’t comport well with traditional diplomacy. It would be wonderful if diplomacy could be used to deter their goals but alas that is the classic pipe dream. Read all you want about the various proposals for dealing with them and show me just one strategy that has a chance of success. We or the Israelis should destroy their nuclear capabilities now while there is time. Once they have them everything will freeze up until the Iranis decide to deploy their weapon. It will be the classic sword of Damacles hanging over the head of the world. At the same time we should take out their entire air force and naval forces. We should not even attempt to invade the place. They would be left with their sizable army to defend themselves against their neighbors. There would be no regime change imposed by the West. They could do as they like with their country except to develop those weapons that would destroy hundreds of thousands or millions. I know many would say such a course of action will only create more Islamist terrorists because of the desire for revenge the Iranians would want. Maybe so. But is that alternative any worse than them using 2 or 3 nuclear weapons on selected targets in the Mid East or elsewhere? The latter is what they say they will do and there is nothing to indicate they don’t mean exactly what they say. Destroying the potential threat is the highest priority. Such an action would casue trouble but so would the use of their weapons. Some nations would get all mad but the bottom line is no one would come to their rescue and no nation would go to war over Iran if all we did was take the course of action outlined here. Behind closed doors most of the world would breathe a sigh of relief.
The recent riots in the streets and election disputes don’t change anything even if that Mousavi fellow were to prevail. Remember he was vetted and approved by the Aytollah or he would never have been on the ballot in the first place and he has made no denounciation of the nuclear program or the national goal of eliminationg Israel. That would only change the horse but not the destination that Iran is pursuing. www.olcranky.wordpress.com
